Keys to understanding the spread of the COVID-19 in Trump’s country
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advises to close public places, prohibit large gatherings and decree the use of masks
In the United States, the coronavirus has mutated. As the positive cases increase, Americans realize that the epidemic is unstoppable and that, it seems, no corner of the country will be immune.
Until this Friday, July 29, the virus had infected 4.5 million people and killed more than 150,000. According to The New York Times (TNYT), many experts fear that the virus could kill 200,000 or even 300,000 people by the end of the year.
It’s even come to the point that a virus denialist like President Donald Trump has decided to wear a mask, after resisting to do so for months. In addition, he also canceled the Republican National Convention celebrations in Florida.
Today, each state, each city has its own crisis, driven by its own risk factors: a multitude of vacationers, bars reopened too soon, and even protests against wearing masks and against confinement measures.
“We are worse than in March”, when the virus invaded New York, said Dr. Leana S. Wen, a former Baltimore health commissioner. “Back then we had an epicenter. Now we have many”, she told TNYT.
What the experts say
The American newspaper interviewed a group of public health experts from that country, not only doctors and epidemiologists, but also historians and sociologists. In their opinion, the spread of the virus is also influenced by human behavior.
Among the most regrettable conclusions, is that despite advances in vaccines, none is expected for this year, so they fear a new wave of deaths. Among the most affected sectors are the inhabitants of rural areas and African-American communities.
Furthermore, they consider that local restrictions should be stricter and coordinated among all governors and mayors. “So many funerals never had to happen. The United States is hurt, while much of Europe, which was hit first, is recovering and reopening”, said Michele Barry, director of the Center for Innovation in Global Health at Stanford University.
“National arrogance and a belief in American exceptionalism have served us badly”, added Martha L. Lincoln, a medical anthropologist and historian at San Francisco State University.
But, since its appearance until today, how much have they learned from the coronavirus:
- The virus is “extremely transmittable”, through cough drops and also “a fine mist of aerosol that is expelled when people speak aloud, laugh or sing”.
- Masks are much more effective than scientists ever believed.
- Carriers of viruses with mild or no symptoms can be infectious.
- There may be 10 times as many people who transmit the disease than those that are known.
- In severely ill patients, the coronavirus can bind itself to receptors within veins and arteries, and advance to attack the kidneys, heart, intestine, and even the brain, suffocating these organs with hundreds of small blood clots.
- The most vulnerable are those with obesity, high blood pressure, or diabetes.
- Adults 18 to 49 years represent more hospitalized cases than older adults.
- Young children seem to transmit the virus less often than teens.
- Perhaps 10% of those infected represent 80% of new transmissions.
- Nursing homes, meat packing plants, churches, prisons and bars are the main focuses.
- No medication has been shown to be a quick cure: remdesivir (antiviral) shortens the hospital stay, while dexamethasone (steroid) helps save some seriously ill patients.
There is no national confinement
For his part, Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, argues that only a national blockade can contain the virus entirely.
Meanwhile, Danielle Allen, director of the Edmond J. Safra Ethics Center at Harvard University, highlighted that the average of 25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants requires more restrictions, such as closing bars and limiting meetings. “Above that number, authorities should issue orders to stay home”, she added.
Additionally, many agree that testing should be free in places where people are poor or uninsured, such as public housing projects, Native American reservations, and churches and supermarkets in impoverished neighborhoods. “None of this will be possible unless the nation’s testing capacity, a continuing disaster, is greatly expanded”, reports TNYT.
This week, new infections increased in 33 states, in Puerto Rico and in the District of Columbia. The recommendation of epidemiologist Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is that in states where the virus is very active, public places should be closed, large gatherings banned and the use of masks decreed.
In that sense, the renowned doctor warned that now the daily average is 1,106 deaths, but that number can increase much more.
In this regard, Rochelle Walensky, head of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, exposed the case of rural areas. “Almost 80% of the country’s counties do not have a single infectious disease specialist”.
How are vaccines progressing?
According to a database compiled by TNYT, around the world they are developing more than 165 possible vaccines, although only 27 are in human trials.
The Trump administration has just awarded nearly $ 2 billion to a Pfizer-led consortium that promised 100 million doses by December, assuming the trials are successful.
Due to the fact that the virus is still spreading rapidly, most experts said that the “challenge trials,” in which a small number of volunteers are vaccinated and then deliberately infected, probably would not be necessary.
However, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has said that a vaccine will be approved even if it is only 50% effective. Experts said they could accept that, at least initially, because the first approved vaccine could save lives, while testing continued with better alternatives.
Several experts agreed that “a vaccine does not have to work perfectly to be useful”. “Even with the measles vaccine, sometimes you can get measles, but it’s mild and you’re not infectious”.
Racism on the surface
Another risk that remains constant, even in states with few black and Hispanic residents, is that both communities are the most affected, indicated experts.
“People of color are more likely to have jobs that require physical presence and sometimes close contact, such as construction jobs, shop assistants, and nursing. They are more likely to rely on public transportation and live in neighborhoods where supermarkets are scarce and crowded”, TNYT reports.
It also notes that they are more likely to live in crowded and multi-generational homes, some with only one bathroom, making it impossible to safely isolate the home when illness occurs. Plus, they have higher rates of obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, and asthma.
Federal data compiled through May 28 shows that African-Americans and Hispanics were three times more likely to be infected than their white neighbors, and twice as likely to die, even if they lived in remote rural counties with few black or Hispanic residents, informed TNYT.
Those rates are maintained, even when another study found that, until May, the average black American practiced more social distancing than the average white.
The beginning of the end?
There was no widespread agreement among experts on what is likely to happen in the years after the pandemic. Some scientists expect a rapid economic recovery, while others think the damage could persist for years. Based on what they think about this point, citizens will vote next November.
Several experts said they assumed that millions of Americans who were left without health insurance or forced to queue at food banks would vote for politicians who favor universal health care, paid sick leave, greater income equality. and other changes. But in the face of deep political divisions, no researcher was sure what the outcome of the upcoming elections would be.
The Trump administration did little to gain trust. More than six months after the worst health crisis in a century, it was only last week that he urged Americans to wear face masks and canceled the Republican Convention in Florida, the kind of high-risk indoor event that governors have been banning. since mid-March.
Trump has ignored, contradicted, or belittled his scientific advisers, repeatedly saying that the virus would simply disappear, promoting unproven drugs like hydroxychloroquine, even after its ineffectiveness and dangerousness were proven; and suggesting that disinfectants or deadly UV light could save lives.
Millions of Americans have lost their jobs and health insurance, and are in danger of losing their homes, even when they find themselves facing a fatal illness.
In the end, Dr. Julie Gerberding, former director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) concludes: “This is not a once-in-a-century event. It is an omen of what is to come”.
You also can read…
